Portugal’s economy is showing signs of robust growth, with provisional indicators suggesting an acceleration in the fourth quarter of 2024. Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento expressed optimism about the country’s economic outlook, projecting a growth rate of 2.1% for 2025, despite facing external uncertainties.
Economic Indicators Pointing Upward
The finance minister highlighted the Bank of Portugal’s daily composite indicator of activity, along with preliminary data on investment and private consumption, as key factors contributing to the positive outlook. The fourth quarter numbers indicate a significant economic acceleration, which is expected to bolster the government’s growth forecasts.
In addition to growth forecasts, the government anticipates another budget surplus in 2025, projected at 0.3% of GDP. This follows a surplus of 0.4% in 2024. The finance minister noted that various international institutions are also forecasting a surplus for Portugal, although the Bank of Portugal has predicted a slight deficit of 0.1%.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases
The National Statistics Institute is set to release its flash estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP on January 30, 2025. In the previous quarter, Portugal’s economy grew by 0.2% compared to the second quarter, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous three months, and showing a year-on-year growth of 1.9%.
Conclusion
Portugal’s economic outlook for 2025 appears promising, with indicators suggesting a strong recovery and growth trajectory. However, the government remains cautious about external factors that could impact this positive trend. As the country prepares for the upcoming data releases, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the developments in both domestic and international economic conditions.
